All major market segments experienced seasonally adjusted prices that were down year over year in October, although declines have slowed in recent months, especially for sedans.
Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were lower in October than in September, according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) released Nov. 7.
The index fell to 202.8, a decline of 3.2% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment reduced the change for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values declined at a higher rate. The non-adjusted price in October decreased by 1.9% compared to September, moving the unadjusted average price down 3.7% year over year.
“Wholesale values were a bit weaker against what we normally see in October, and trends may have been impacted by business disruptions early in the month caused by hurricanes Helene and Milton coming back-to-back,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive. “Seasonally, October is the weakest month of the year for wholesale values; however, in recent weeks, we’ve observed lower depreciation trends in key segments against long-term run rates. Sales conversion continues to run higher than normal at this time of year, while days’ supply at Manheim is lower than normal, which likely keeps depreciation trends below average.”
In October, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw weekly decreases every week of the month, yet those declines varied weekly. Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased by an aggregate of 2.0%, including the smallest drop of 0.3% in the last week of the month. Those four weeks delivered an average decrease of 2.5% between 2014 and 2019, indicating that depreciation trends were less than typical.
In October, daily MMR Retention, the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 98.6%, meaning market prices stayed below MMR values again this month but were unchanged against September levels. Compared to October 2023, valuation models were lower by two-tenths of a point on MMR retention and three-tenths lower than 2019 levels for the same period.
The average daily sales conversion rate in October fell to 57.4%, a decline of 1.8 points against last month, yet much higher than what is usually seen at this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 52.1% in October during the last three years, as October is seasonally the weakest month of the year for wholesale markets.
All major market segments experienced seasonally adjusted prices that were down year over year in October, although declines have slowed in recent months, especially for sedans. Compared to October 2023, the luxury and midsize sedan segments outperformed the market, as both fell by 3.0% in the period. Performing worse than the overall industry, compact cars were down 3.5%, SUVs fell 3.9%, and pickups continued showing the most depreciation, declining by 6% yearly.
Compared to September, several segments performed better than the industry’s decline:
- Midsize sedans experienced a 0.5% increase month over month
- Pickups saw a 0.1% rise
- Compact cars remained steady compared to September 2024.
- Falling more than the industry, SUVs declined by 0.9%, and the luxury segment was lower by 1.2% compared to September 2024.
Looking at the market by powertrain, both electric vehicles (EVs) and non-EVs were lower against September. Seasonally adjusted EV values for October 2024 showed some of the strongest depreciation trends in a few months and fell by 11.1%, while non-EVs were down 3.5% year over year, continuing the trends we have seen for most of the year.
Looking at the change against September, seasonally adjusted EV values decreased more than the overall market, falling by 0.6% from September 2024, while non-EVs declined more than EVs, declining 1.1% over the same period.
Retail Used-Vehicle Sales Increased in October
Assessing retail vehicle sales based on observed changes in units tracked by vAuto, initial estimates of retail used-vehicle sales in October were up 2% compared to September and higher year over year by 11%. A used vehicle’s average retail listing price increased 0.3% over the last four weeks.
Using estimates of retail used days’ supply based on vAuto data, an initial assessment indicates October ended at 46 days’ supply, unchanged from 46 days at the end of September but down eight days from October 2023 at 54 days.
New vehicle sales in October were up 10.6% from last year, and volume increased 13.3% from September. The October sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), came in at 16 million, up 0.7 million from last year’s pace and higher than September’s 15.8 million level.
Combined sales into large commercial, government, and rental fleets increased 16.5% year over year in October. Including an estimate for fleet deliveries into dealer and manufacturer channels, the remaining new retail sales were estimated to be up 13.3% from last year, leading to an estimated retail SAAR of 13.4 million, up 3.5% from last year’s pace, and down from September’s estimated 12.4 million level. Fleet share was estimated to be 13.9%, down from last year’s 15.9% share.
Rental Risk Price and Mileage Results Were Mixed in October Against Last Year
The average price for rental risk units sold at auction in October declined just 0.7% year over year. Rental risk prices decreased by 0.7% compared to September. Average mileage for rental risk units in October (at 52,500 miles) rose 6.2% for the month against last year’s level. For the month of October, rental unit average mileage was down only 0.2% from September 2024.
Measures of Consumer Confidence Improved in October
- The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index jumped 9.6% in October, when only a slight increase had been expected, and September’s index was revised higher. Consumers’ views of both the present and the future improved. Consumer confidence was up 9.7% year over year. Plans to purchase a vehicle in the next six months increased substantially to the highest level since December 2019.
- According to the sentiment index from the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment increased 0.6% in October compared to September and was up 10.5% year over year. Views of the current situation improved, but expectations declined. The median consumer expectation for inflation in a year was stable compared to September at 2.7%, the lowest level since December 2020. The median expectation for inflation in five years declined to 3.0% from 3.1% in September. The consumers’ views of buying conditions for vehicles have improved to the best level since April.
- The daily index of consumer sentiment from Morning Consult extended its streak of increases to five straight monthly gains. The index was up 1.4% for the month, which left it up 10.3% year over year.
According to AAA, the national average price for unleaded gas was $3.12 per gallon in October, down 2.6% from the end of September and down 9% year over year.
