Trump takes credit for stocks’ rally, yet there are expectations his Fed would be ‘not just dovish, but weird’



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‘THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP.’


— Donald Trump, the former U.S. presudent

That line above came in a social-media post Monday from Donald Trump, who is widely expected to win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination and face off against Democratic President Joe Biden in November’s general election.

Trump is claiming, in all-caps on his Truth Social platform, that he’s responsible for the U.S. stock market’s recent gains, which have pushed the Dow industrials
DJIA
and S&P 500
SPX
to all-time highs repeatedly in January.

“EVERYTHING ELSE IS TERRIBLE (WATCH THE MIDDLE EAST!), AND RECORD SETTING INFLATION HAS ALREADY TAKEN ITS TOLL,” he also wrote.

Related: Biden vows retaliation after 3 Americans killed, dozens wounded in drone attack by Iran-backed militia in Jordan

The Democratic National Committee criticized the former president for his comments, saying in a statement Tuesday that Trump is “desperately trying to mislead voters and take credit for President Biden’s strong economic recovery.”

One analyst, Wolfe Research’s Tobin Marcus, said in a note Tuesday that he thinks “investor interest in the policy implications of a second Trump presidency has picked up significantly,” and the implications would include looser monetary policy.

Marcus warned that Trump’s approach toward the Federal Reserve could end up making the U.S. central bank “not just dovish, but weird.”

“Trump’s Fed picks trended from the qualified toward the unorthodox as time went on, as he became increasingly unshackled from the influence of advisors who guided his early policy — we expect that things would
continue in this direction in a second Trump administration,” wrote Marcus, who is Wolfe’s head of policy and politics and served as an economic adviser to Biden when he was vice president.

“Even more traditional and well-qualified picks could prove unpredictable in the face of jawboning by Trump,” he added.

Biden and Trump have been in a war of words over stocks in recent weeks, with the incumbent jabbing at his GOP rival last month for predicting a market collapse. Earlier this month, Trump said he hopes the market crashes in 2024 under Biden because he doesn’t want to be Herbert Hoover, who was president during the 1929 plunge for equities.

Market analysis: Why Donald Trump is unlikely to get his wish for a 2024 U.S. stock-market crash

On Tuesday, the main U.S. stock indexes
SPY
were losing ground modestly as traders assessed earnings reports and braced for the Fed’s announcement on interest rates that’s due Wednesday.

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