Newport Beach grabbed national headlines this summer after a New Zealand tourist was killed in a violent robbery at Fashion Island — one of Orange County’s most upscale malls.
Four months earlier, police a city over in Irvine issued a warning on social media after 34 residential burglaries had been reported in nearly as many days. Residents used to the quiet safety of the master-planned suburban community were perplexed.
“What happened to Irvine?” one man questioned on the police post.
While coastal Orange County cities are typically far removed from the safety woes of Los Angeles and other major urban centers, debate over crime has turned into a critical issue in an election seen as pivotal in determining which party controls the House of Representatives after the November election.
Republican Scott Baugh and state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) are vying for the seat representing the 47th Congressional District, which includes Irvine, Newport Beach, Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach and Huntington Beach. Rep. Katie Porter, who represents the district, decided not to seek reelection, instead launching an unsuccessful bid for the U.S. Senate.
Republicans have seized on crime as a potential way to appeal to voters and flip the highly sought seat. Republicans’ argument that Democrats are soft on crime has historically served the GOP well. Years of polling show that voters view Republicans as being more stringent on justice issues.
“People that live in cities have more tolerance for the disorder that’s in the urban environment — it’s not just crime, but there’s trash, cars parked on the sidewalk — a lot of stuff you just don’t see in the suburbs,” said Matt Lesenyie, an assistant professor of political science at Cal State Long Beach. “The people that are most concerned about crime at least in this cycle tend to be people who generally aren’t anywhere near it.”
Less than a month after the death at Fashion Island, Baugh posted on the social media site X slamming Min for “[supporting] reducing penalties for theft, leaving to rampant smash and grabs in our malls…and even an innocent grandmother’s murder this month.”
Min accused Baugh of lying about his record and responded by sending a cease and desist letter to his opponent’s Huntington Beach home, according to a video posted on Min’s campaign website.
Min has campaigned as a different style of Democrat — one who is supportive of central progressive issues such as abortion rights and protecting the environment — but also as someone who will break from his party on certain crime and punishment issues.
“I’ve been much more moderate on public safety and taxes,” Min said during a recent interview with The Times. “And it turns out those are the issues that Republicans want to hit me on the most. So the thing is they have to pull votes out of context now to try to paint that picture.”
In the months leading up to election day, conservative political action committees have sent out half a dozen mailers to voters in the district all focused on Min’s record on criminal justice issues. One mailer features a picture of Min looking somber ahead of the faded glow of red and blue police lights, criticizing him for his 2023 arrest for driving under the influence. The ad asserts that “convicted drunk driver Dave Min has brought LA style crime to Orange County.”
More than $7.5 million has been spent by political action committees opposing Min. Roughly $4.4 million has been spent in opposition to Baugh. Conservative PAC Club For Growth Action has spent about $1.27 million this cycle against Min, and the Win It Back PAC has spent more than $1.17 million, campaign finance records show.
Mailers sent by PACs on behalf of Min have touted his efforts to create “a safer Orange County” and his efforts to end firearm sales at the OC Fairgrounds.
Baugh has also faced attacks for criminal charges he faced stemming from an accusation that he falsified state-required financial disclosure forms related to his 1995 campaign that gave Republicans control of the California Assembly for the first time in 25 years. In 1999, Baugh agreed to pay a civil fine of $47,900 for nine violations of the state Political Reform Act.
At the same time, the conservative Win It Back and Club For Growth Action have sent out mailers to voters in the district criticizing Min on criminal justice issues like cash bail and his drunk driving arrest. The “cash bail” mailer points to Min’s vote in 2021 in favor of SB 262, which aimed to prevent defendants from paying for conditions of their release and would have required courts to return a bail premium if a defendant’s charges are dropped. The legislation died in the assembly.
Voters are seeing it on television and social media too.
A television ad paid for by the Win It Back PAC criticizes Min’s support for a bill that would have prohibited the Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation from providing immigration officials with release date information for detainees who may be eligible for deportation. The bill, which had widespread support among Democrats in the Legislature, was vetoed by Gov. Gavin Newsom.
The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund released a television ad this month criticizing his yes vote on the Safer Streets for All Act, which Newsom signed into law in 2022, saying it makes it “harder for police to investigate sex crimes.” Supporters say the law was written to prevent police officers from profiling loiterers — and labeling them as prostitutes — based on their appearance.
UC Irvine School of Social Ecology Dean Jon Gould said the ads are clearly “targeting people who don’t pay a lot of attention to politics, but they’re hoping will vote.”
“They are trying to dirty up Min to tie him to crime,” he said.
A recent poll by USC and Cal State Long Beach showed that mention of Min’s DUI in attack ads might be working. When asked to name a word or phrase to describe each candidate, Min’s most frequent open-ended mention was “DUI” or “Drunk driving.” Likely voters most recent associated Baugh with “conservative.”
Many of those voters were not necessarily enthused about the choices at the top of the ticket, the poll showed. So these ads could be a way to get voters who might not be passionate about the presidential race to turnout for down-ballot contests, experts say.
“If you’re activated by the crime narratives, you probably already have your mind made up about who is getting your vote,” Lesenyie said. “If you think crime is around every corner those mailers then are more of a turnout exercise for conservative leaning voters.”
Min broke from party leadership, including Newsom, over the summer when he publicly supported Proposition 36, a controversial anti-crime measure on the November ballot that aims to increase penalties for certain theft and drug offenses.
The ballot measure would alter critical parts of Proposition 47, a ballot measure passed by voters a decade ago, with the goal of implementing harsher penalties for repeat retail theft offenders. It would also mandate drug treatment as an option — rather than jail time — for those who commit certain drug offenses.
“I think my views on crime and punishment are probably similar to most people I know,” Min said. “I believe if you commit a crime, you should pay the consequences of that, and the punishment should be proportionate to the crime or the infliction of harm on society.”
Baugh, who was an early supporter of Proposition 36, said when door knocking he’s heard a similar refrain from voters in the district. They worry about the effects of inflation, the border and crime seeping into their communities.
“This is in areas that are traditionally the safest places in the country,” Baugh said. “These are the policies of our state. A message was sent out to criminals that it’s OK to commit these crimes. There will be no consequences. All it does is encourage more of it.”
Despite pushback from civil rights groups and prominent Democrats, many Californians support the ballot measure.
A Public Policy Institute of California poll published last month found that 71% of likely California voters said they would vote in favor of Proposition 36. The numbers were even higher among Orange County and San Diego voters, 74% of whom said they would vote for the ballot measure.
“Crime has been in the news and Orange County residents — one might say — are here because they don’t want to be dealing with that,” Gould said.
